Clock

The Warchester Clock

20:25

The Warchester Clock currently stands at 2025, 8 years from now.

What is the Warchester Clock? Well, for a start it isn’t really a clock and there is nowhere called Warchester. It doesn’t read twenty five minutes past eight in the evening. Rather it represents a year. It shows the average answer from contributors and interviewees of the FMJ to the question…

By what year do you think at least 25% of the journeys within Warchester will be provided by autonomous vehicles?

The question begs the question, what is an average UK town. It is somewhere that is not unusual in terms of population, economy and transport infrastructure. It isn’t an obvious “mobility as a service” target city like London or Manchester. It won’t be on Uber’s “Top 10 target cities”.

We called this imaginary average town Warchester. It is imaginary to avoid getting hung up on specifics. Warchester is not an insignificant place. It has a population of 125,000. There is a reasonable local economy, a main line railway station; extensive local bus services, a long distance bus interchange; out of town park & ride facilities and established taxi firms. Two car families are not unusual. It holds occasional conferences and festivals, bringing in an influx of visitors to a good cross-section of hotels and restaurants. Warchester is 125 miles from London and is not on the outskirts of any other major city.

Influence the Clock by adding your own guesstimate in the comments below. Feel free to give us an insight into your rationale. We are as interested in why you have chosen a particular year as we are in what the year is. Perhaps you think there is more hype than reality in the forecasts for new modes of transport and that future mobility will be little different to today. You may feel there are dynamics that will drive change faster than anyone currently thinks.

Have your say below.